Klimatklubb nästa steg?

2015-12-14
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Ett nytt globalt klimatavtal är på plats och klimatvänner världen över slapp se fiaskot från Köpenhamn 2009 i déjà vu. Brittiska The Guardian kallar avtalet för världens största diplomatiska framgång. The Economist deklarerar taktfast att avtalet är ett aldrig tidigare skådat politiskt erkännande av klimatförändringarnas risker. Helt klart har dessa två veckor lett fram till något utöver det vanliga.

Som bekant bör man dock inte ropa hej innan man kommit över bäcken: varje land bestämmer självt vilka löften det ska ge om utsläppsminskningar. Räknar man ihop vad världens länder nu lovat beräknas temperaturhöjningen till 3°C över förindustriella nivån. Det är en grad över vad klimatforskningen föreslår som en någorlunda säker nivå för att minimera klimatförändringarnas skadliga effekter. Löftena går också stick i stäv med avtalet som siktar på att stoppa uppvärmningen av planeten ”långt under” – well below – 2°C över den förindustriella nivån.

Ett av de stora framstegen med det nya avtalet är att rika länder går med på att föra över 100 miljarder dollar per år till fattigare länder att investera i klimatförbättrande åtgärder. Även länder som Kina och Indien, som tidigare behandlats som utvecklingsländer trots sina stora utsläpp, ”uppmuntras” att delta i finansiering av klimatomställningen i fattiga länder. Detta innebär att fattiga länder som är i behov av tillväxt, som i de flesta fall är fossildriven, kan få hjälp att snabbare ta sig ur ett beroende av olja och kol, i alla fall delvis.

Anledningen till att det gått så pass bra att förhandla om klimatet denna gång jämfört med för sex år sedan i Köpenhamn är många och svåra att uttala sig om så nära inpå klimatmötet. Vissa saker spelar dock in lite extra.

I de två största utsläppsländerna i världen, USA och Kina, råder speciella omständigheter. The Guardian skriver om att Barack Obama, som sitter sin sista period som president utan möjlighet att bli omvald, har haft en väldigt progressiv agenda för klimatet. Kina har under en period fasat ut kol som energikälla som redan bidragit till sjunkande utsläpp, vilket i sin tur gör det enklare för Kina att skriva under avtal om utsläppsminskningar.

Xi Jinping och Obamas goda relation och gemensamma överenskommelse om att ta större ansvar för klimatet spelar förmodligen också en viktig roll i helgens avtal. Ett lågt oljepris gör det mindre kostsamt att lämna kvar oljan i marken. De politiska och ekonomiska förutsättningarna har varit onormalt bra för att få till stånd ett avtal.

Trots de goda förutsättningarna och ett avtal i hamn missar världen dock tvågradersmålet med råge. Globala avtal kommer inte räcka för att sänka utsläppen tillräckligt; ambitiösa länder måste hålla igen när länder som Saudiarabien och andra oljeexportörer sätter käppar hjulet. Progressiva länder måste kunna gå före genom att utmana andra länder att sänka utsläppen ännu mer, samtidigt som man delar på kunskap och teknik. Klimatklubbar kan vara lösningen för framsynta och utvecklade länder som vill nå ambitiösare avtal i framtiden.

Ett liknande koncept finns för ekonomiska frågor inom det så kallade G20, där 19 länder och EU representeras av sina finansministrar för att diskutera ekonomisk policy. För länder som redan kommit långt i sitt klimatarbete skulle en klimatklubb kunna fungera som en arena för att dela teknologi och kunskap. Möjligheterna för att diskutera handelsfrågor för att gynna handel med lägre utsläpp och komma överens om ett globalt pris på koldioxidutsläpp är också stora. En sådan klubb av världens klimatbästa och mest ambitiösa länder skulle kunna bli en viktig röst när nästa avtal ska signeras i Marocko.

Sverige skulle kunna spela en viktig roll i skapandet av en klimatklubb. Sverige är ett av de bästa länderna i världen på klimatutsläpp, i alla fall vad gäller koldioxidinnehåll per producerad krona. Svenska företag ligger långt fram och skulle kunna spela en viktig roll i att driva klimatfrågor inom det internationella näringslivet, samtidigt som vi sett vilken tyngd Sverige haft i Paris-förhandlingarna genom miljöminister Åsa Romson. Lilla Sverige skulle kunna spela en enormt viktig roll, trots sin litenhet. I en sådan klimatklubb skulle länderna gemensamt kunna sätta upp mål och delmål med konkreta utsläppsnivåer för att stanna uppvärmningen vid 1,5°C. Den statsminister som kunde stoltsera med att ha tagit initiativ till en sådan klubb kan se sina barnbarn i ögonen utan att skämmas.

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